Ali Hussain
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Around £18 billion of cash will be pulled out of the buy-to-let market in the next few years, further destabilising the housing market, according to a new study.
The research, by the financial services firm Skandia, suggests that landlords will be driven from property investment by falling house prices, higher mortgage rates and sluggish rental growth.
It forecasts that the stock of buy-to-let mortgages will collapse to £44 billion from £120 billion at the end of 2007. Assuming the average loan-to-value ratio of 80 per cent that would be sufficient to release £18 billion of cash tied up in property investments.
Nick Poyntz-Wright, chief executive of Skandia UK said: “Higher mortgage rates and falling property prices will cause investors to reconsider their exposure to residential property.”
UK house prices have tumbled more than 11 per cent to an average £177,351 since last August's peak, based on the Halifax index, after a decade of booming prices that added 145 per cent to the average home's value. A mass sell off by buy-to-let investors would send prices spiralling even lower.
However, other experts dispute the notion that there will be an exodus out of buy-to-let.
Melanie Bien at broker Savills Private Finance, says: “Property is a long-term investment so to suggest that investors will now start selling up because prices have fallen over the past year after years of house-price growth is madness. With prices falling, now is not a good time to sell. The best thing landlords can do is sit tight - and the vast majority will do exactly that. The housing market will recover and some normality will resume in time."
Demand for rental property has been increasing as people either delay buying somewhere new or are unable to obtain a mortgage. This has enabled landlords to increase rents over the past three months, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). Tenant demand has been rising at its fastest rate since 1998, with 37 per cent more chartered surveyors reporting an increase in lettings in the three months to July, up from 30 per cent during the previous quarter.
Vincenzo Rampulla of the National Landlords Association (NLA) said: “With rental incomes stable in June and 9.3 per cent up on the previous year, it is hard to justify the Skandia figures. Whilst some buy-to-let investors will have entered the market in more benign times hoping to make a quick fortune, others will have been looking to make prudent long-term investments."
However, the environment could be about to get tougher. Rics has warned that the downturn is forcing increasing number of homeowners to rent out their property because they are unable to sell. As the supply of rental properties increase it expects rents to fall slightly during the next three months.
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I have been buying and selling property for 30 years through several well publisized peaks and dips, always made a profit. Property Investment is no different to any other investment. Use your business head and common sense and you'll succeed.
Jo King, Exeter, Devon
I bought at 150k in the docklands in 1990 sold at 87k after
throwing in the towel in 97 just as things picked up,
now the flat would fetch 250k,
those overleveraged should stick it out for the next 4/5yrs
they will make good all thier losses the value of thier outstanding loan will plummet
peter, london, uk
For every boom there is a bust that's basic economics.
Nicholas, LARNACA, CYPRUS
Swale
There are hundreds of thousands whi bought at the peak. They are the trigger. Teh ammunition is the Eastern Europeans returning home and the people who are losing their jobs.
If one bought during previous peaks (from the 50s onwards), they would take 15 years to get their money back
Trevor, Southfields,
Many landlords will choose to sell. They can always come back to the market in a few years and buy for much less. Some experts are predicting a fifty percent fall from peak to trough. If that is anywhere near right sensible landlords will cut their losses.
Mary, Sydney, Australia
Long term housing price decline combined with non-house price inflation. Even worse than Japan's 90s.
Michael, London,
Shortsighted will sell, most shrewd landlords will hang on to their properties and wait for inevitable shortage of accommodation and put rents up!
Value of property will return with time and better financial climate - just a matter of time!
Of course a war may mean big problems all round ?
BJ, Swale, Kent
Landlords with fixed rate mortgages will, in general, hold. Rising interest rates and more strict lending guidelines will enlarge the pool of renters. Unless populations shrink sharply, that implies increased demand, implying increased rents. Variable rate mortgage buyer/owners may have to sell.
ron davis, Portland, USA
When TV stations start broadcasting home improvement shows at prime time, you know it is time to be concerned!!
sam, Kingston, Jamaica
Savills said the downturn wouldn't hit the £1million plus house. it has!
They recently said it won't hit the £6 million plus market .
They also said the market was due to flatten 6 months ago. it hasnt.
Anyone thought they are worried as thier jobs depend on this?
Face it we are in a downturn.
andy, winchester,
"destabilising the housing market" Surely you mean the exact opposite? The market has been destabilised by cheap credit and BTL, now it is restabilising to a sustainable level. And the quciker it happens, the happier we will all be.
bob travels, stevenage,
Colin, are you saying that you are a greedy landlord who sold last year before the crash?
Paul, Coventry,
The economics of BTL were always founded on property prices rising since yields, even with low interest rates, frequently barely covered outgoings.
Many of those 'last in' in will now be finding difficulty meeting bank interest payments.
There is always a price to pay for financial naivety.
S.M. Cooper, Consett,
Well said Pete, Banstead
vere, camberley,
Landlords to withdraw billions ! to whom are they selling to?
Douglas, Burnley, Lancs
Why this continuing speculation about house prices?. In truth absolutely no one has any idea where house prices will be in 12 or 24 months time. The open market will decide rises or falls. Too many vested parties are trying to influence the market by making speculative predictions that wont work.
pete, Banstead, uk
landlords greed has backfired big time.they all jumped on when the rates were 3.99 %thinking it would never end...well it has rates now 7%.most landlords are struggling..i am lucky i sold 40 houses last year before the crash....greedy landlords should have sold last year.......
colin armstrong, lisburn, n.ireland
Many BTL landlords will sell as they view their properties as short term investments and will not want to suffer a loss.
The dumping of BTL properties on the market will put further downward pressure on prices.
What caused the market to boom will cause the market to go bust!
Costas, Cyprus,
Nick, 1 in 20 houses is empty. There are lots of empty flats. With house prices rising, people could sit on an empty property. Now they need to sell or rent to prevent erosion of assets. Rents across the board will fall.
Lenny, Coventry,
The old spiel 'long term investment' not when values are falling, rents are declining and overheads and the hassle keep increasing. Each night you lay your head on the pillow realising that you are up to your eyes in debt and if you lose your job you could lose everything. Looks like a crazy bet.
Simon, Harrogate, UK
Oh so where are the people who rent out their properties going to live or will they just disappear off the face of the earth? They have to live somewhere, so even if they downsize and rent somewhere cheaper they're still going to be pushing the demand up at the bottom end of the market.
Nick, London, UK