Michael Evans, Defence Editor
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Georgia’s attempt to seize control of the secessionist South Ossetia region has been a gamble too far, reckless in its timing and founded on a fundamental misjudgment.
President Saakashvili of Georgia thought that he had the West on his side but he has been outsmarted by Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, who now holds all the cards.
Although Mr Saakashvili has had American military personnel training his army to serve in Iraq, there was never any question of Washington taking on the Russians on his behalf.
The military adventure had all the hallmarks of rushed planning and a fingers-crossed strategy, launched in the hope and expectation that the Russians would not react, but that if they did, the Americans and Georgia’s other Nato friends would come to his aid in one form or another. With President Bush at the Beijing Olympics, was, perhaps, the US eye off the ball when the Russians moved in?
After only three days, the Georgian leader has had to pull back, partly because his troops failed to seal off the Roki tunnel, 2½ miles (4km) long, that links South Ossetia with North Ossetia and provided passage for dozens of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles. It was a military blunder.
Five battalions of Russia’s 58th Army, which fought in Chechnya, drove through the tunnel. With 150 tanks, heavy artillery and overwhelmingly superior firepower, the Russian troops were able to seize control of all the heights around Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia.
The 58th, which is based at Vladikavkaz in the North Caucasus military district in Russia, was backed by ground-attack aircraft, presenting a formidable fighting package. At the same time there were indications that the Russians planned a second front, moving into Abkhazia. The tiny Georgian Army never stood a chance.
It was also a classic misreading on Mr Saakashvili’s part of the relationship between Washington and Moscow, and a misunderstanding of what Mr Putin was prepared to do to maintain his image as the tough guy in the region and on the world stage.
Mr Putin has on a number of occasions publicly dismissed any possibility that the Cold War could return. But the decision by Mr Saakashvili gave the Russian leader the opportunity he was waiting for to stamp his authority over Georgia and at the same time to cock a snook at the West. He knew that he could get away with pouring troops, armoured vehicles and artillery into South Ossetia to “protect” the majority Russian passport-holding inhabitants. All he had to do was wait for Mr Saakashvili to make the first move.
The seeds of the Georgian misadventure were sown in Bucharest at the Nato summit in April, where alliance leaders gave out mixed messages about their enthusiasm for Georgia to join the US-dominated organisation. Adroit diplomatic pressure by Mr Putin when he was Russian President forced a split in the alliance, with President Bush finding himself in a minority when he urged his colleagues to sign up Georgia for Nato’s membership action plan, the key stage to joining as a full member eventually.
Despite the summit’s declaration that both Georgia and Ukraine would definitely, some day, join the alliance, Mr Putin would have realised that Nato was not yet prepared to go all the way, fearing the damage that it might cause to relations with Moscow.
Mr Saakashvili put on a bold front, despite his disappointment, especially after Mr Bush had been so publicly in favour of Georgia joining Nato, and, probably, at that moment, started thinking about launching a military operation against the secessionists in South Ossetia, and, if successful, possibly to move against Abkhazia, the other separatist region. Perhaps he judged that Nato would then be spurred into action.
However, with Russian troops never far away, it was always going to be David versus Goliath. But this time a slingshot was not good enough. He had Mr Putin to deal with and there was never any doubt who would win that battle.
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To understand what Russia did in Caucasus you must spend 200 years together with Russians. I think author does not have any clue about that conflict or Russians bought this article as they do it usually. This is a part of Russian propaganda. Devide and then rule that's all Russians know
Tea Godoladze, Tbilisi, Georgia
The globalists are encircling Russia. It's all about oil and one world government/tyranny. Down with the New World Order!
linda prosh, Mattawa, Canada
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are parts of Georgia! Russians who had to go to Georgia because their own government starved them should respect bountiful Georgia and not steal keep Georgian land which nourished them..
Irma Da Silva, Manila, Philippines
Georgia should not destroy Osetian people. If there is only one country who can protect small nations as Osetians and Abkhazians, and this is Russia, then all the respect to this country.
Mr. Ago from Estonia, you shouldn't blindly support Georgia, you don't know what they do. I am Abkhazian.
Karin, London,
Not all of us Americans are under the spell of the Corrupt mainstream media, there are many that are fully aware and ashamed of our Government and the propaganda that is POURED on the people of this Nation. unfortunately we are a minority...Lets hope and pray this isn't the start of WW3
jack, Boston, USA
"Where did the independent media go?" Roman (Russia), you should ask your own government this question. If you want independent news, avoid your "official" (government) news; look for news that comes from nations with a free press & that shows different sides of an issue, not just one (biased) side.
Duane Magoon, Anchorage, Alaska, USA
I'm tired of American hypocrisy! Mere talk about missiles in Cuba is enough to cause panic in Washington but they don't mind encircling Russia. The US has created an ogre - NATO expansion. Looks like the dying struggle of a has been superpower. Time for China and India to pick up the pieces.
Rakesh Krishnan, Auckland, New Zealand
Where do you get your information as a defence editor from?I got mine by reading the English online version of the Pravda newspaper,which said the contrary of what you have understood on the conflict.Namely,there were sporadic clashes between both sides well before the so-called Georgian attack !
Bp, Reggio, Italy
Bush said Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected, but just a few months ago he supported the independence of Kosovo, ignoring the territorial integrity of Serbia! Hypocrite! NATO rampaged Serbia for 3 months in 1999 without the UN permission. Need I mention Iraq? RIP International Law
Michael Smith, Melbourne,
Bush said Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected, but just a few months ago he supported the independence of Kosovo, ignoring the territorial integrity of Serbia! Hypocrite! NATO rampaged Serbia for 3 months in 1999 without the UN permission. Need I mention Iraq? RIP International Law
Michael Smith, Melbourne, z
Lebanon attacked Israel with overwhelming rocket fire, and simultaneously Lebanese terrorists invaded israel's border and stole bodies of Jewish soldiers. Israel responded as any nation would. Continued UK imperialism in Ireland, the Falklands, Gibraltaretc. supports Imperialist Russians...
Anthony, Pennsylvania, USA
Just read this and think.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia
Kostya, Samara, RF
Watching the "mainstream" media is really annoying because of their bias. The facts are simple:
1) Georgia invaded South Ossetia and tried to exterminate its inhabitants
2) Russia intervened to stop the slaughter of the innocent.
If anything, the Georgian President should be tried for genocide
Steve Chege, Nairobi, Kenya
Israel destroys Beirut during its 33 day war, and Russia's response over the past 4 days has been disproportionate? Quite the contrary, they (Russia) have exhibited restraint, even convening the security council at the UN. Putin is correct-black is white and white is black in the eyes of the West.
Eric, London,
Dear Mary from Moscow, where are the hard evidence of "mercenaries" from Baltic countries Ukraine and even some "blacks". The same lies like in Chechenya war where mystic Baltic female snipers in white panties helped muhhadins. Don't act as one of these brainwashed Putinjugend.Wanna truth- Go there
Ago, Tallinn, Estonia
Saying that Georgia should not have opposed Russia because this small country had no chance is like saying that Poland should not have opposed Hitler in 1939 because it had no chance. One does have to oppose the aggressor. UK stood up and fought in '40 while the entire world thought it was finished.
Tomas, Vienna,
Very good article, contrasting to the majority of what appears in media about the conflict.
Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, has brought humiliation and deep frustration to the people of Georgia. He became the most frequent news presenter on CNN, often misinforming the public.
ben russel, Didcot, UK
Funny, then russians killed thousands of civilians in Chechnya (children, women, old people), it was internal affair of russia. Then Georgia did the same russians said that is genocide. The pot calls the kettle black.
Khan, Grozny,
South Carolina next.
Ivan, LA, USA
Fair is fair. If South Ossetia breaks away from Georgia then it's only right that North Ossetia break away from Russia. They then should form an independent state of Ossetia.
T. J. Cassidy, Arlington, Virginia, U.S.A.
Separatism is badly. But the genocide - is much worse. Ossets - small people. Them 120 000. And 2 000 Georgia has destroyed. Authorities of Russia have already started to collect certificates of a genocide for the international tribunal.
Alek., Saratov, Russia
We are right back to the 1950's. The question is, are we going to see the same sceneario all over again? My assessment is that certain parties within the US and their friends set this up to test the water without getting their feet wet and having discovered the water is too hot have run away to hide
Chris Coles, Medstead, Alton, United Kingdom
It would stand to reason that South and North Ossetia belong together. Instead of Georgia going to war , they should let the South Ossetians vote on it, overseen by the UN or someone quite independant.
margie , victoria, australia
When Bush said Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected, American foreign policy lost all credibility.The hypocrisy made me choke on my wheaties!
Paul, Angelholm, Sweden
Russians complaining about our independent media, look at what kind of propaganda gazprom media you have. Sometimes I watch russian channels it scares me it is the same as it was in Soviet times. I think you don't complain about RF media do you Roman?
Algis, Kaunas,
Where did the independent media go? We can't find the truth surfing the web or watching the tv. American channels show how georgian weapons is being sent off to the S.Ossetia but talks about russian attacks.
If Putin's Russia is evil why haven't Russia started this war earlier?
Roman, Moscow, RF
Not be blind people! Saakashvili and Bush for a long time have prepared this plan, Saakashvili impudently deceives all world!
Laba, Moscow, Russia
Sudetenland? I suppose whoever screams Hitler first wins, although unfortunately that means that Bush and Blair, our little Fuhrer and Duce would lose. Bush was compared to Hitler long before Putin. But I suppose Iraq is not at all like Poland. And the neocons are wonderful human beings. Yes, sir!
Daniel, Kansas City,
Instead of overthrowing Sadaam Hussein, the Kurds and the Shiites basically declared "independence" from Iraq after the Kuwait/Desert Storm operation. When Sadaam went on his vicious campaign to punish the rebels. They expected us to intervene. Now the Georgians are expecting us to take on Moscow
Larry, Manchester,NH, USA
So did Bush trick Georgia into invading to give Russia South Ossetia in return the US being given free reign over Iran?
Ian, Tokyo, Japan
Andrew hits the nail on the head...Bring Ukraine into NATO ASAP and lets see how far Mr Vladdy throws his chest out then!
Glenn, Brooklyn , US
Well the Paperhanger who took the Sudetenland eventually lost his gambit, Misha the Bear will ultimately lose this as well.
Glenn, Brooklyn , US
The article is a rare logical explanation of what has occured. Saakashvili is a complete disaster for Georgia with a mind of small Napoleon. And it could be not the last headache he gives his donors.
Interestingly enough Georgians trying to escape Russian bombers fled to Russia.
Andrrew, Canada,
Historically Ossetia is not Georgia.
If Georgia wants to be independent country, Ossetia has equal right.
Alex, Adelaide, Australia
It is amazing how blind people can be! Without any support from NATO and US such country like Georgia would never never even try to go against Russia. There is one more "player" in this game - Bush's administration. Putin has been a great national leader. I wish US would have such president one day.
Elena, Portland, USA
Disgusting that no one in Europe or US is speaking about more than 2000 osetins (children, women, old people) killed by soldiers of Georgian army consisted also of foreign mercenaries. Is that a game for you? You have very 'democratic' mass media and deep love for double standards.
Mary, Moscow, RF
Reality is Georgia was planning on committing ethnic cleansing genocide on Abkhaz and Oss people for very long time. Bravo to Russia for preventing yet another western sponsored ethnic cleansing campaign like former Yugoslavia. Dirty Saakashvili was hoping world would be preoccupied with Olympics.
Zozo, Los Angeles,
there are no similarities between georgia and serbia. georgia didn't cause destruction and ethnic cleansing like serbs did all over Balkans. it was punishment for them . west should react on russian agression. mild reaction could only make things worse. russian would see it as weakness.
John, New York,
A game, a gamble... Why does no one care about thousands of people killed by the indiscriminate bombardment by Grad missiles, unleashed by Georgia on the civilian population of South Ossetia?
Peter, Atlanta, USA
A game... Why doesn't anybody care about thousands of people in South Ossetia killed by the Grad missile fire when Saakashvili made his "gamble"?
Peter, Atlanta, USA
Putin has become a force to be dealt with by the region and the rest of the world. What is left of the Soviet Union , in the form of Putin's Russia seems intent on regaining some of the "respect" it used to have. This guy is a doer, not a couch general. When have we seen this before? Sudetanland...
Jim A, nashua, usa
A Russia headed by Mr Medvedev, ex chairman of Gazprom may wage more wars to marginalise alternative energy routes that compete with Russia. Russia's bombing of Georgia's oil transit pipeline highlights the fragility of the West's energy supplies. Time to admit Ukraine to NATO before the winter?
Andrew Kennedy, Manchester, UK
It was not too long, when America supported separation of Kosova that Putin warned everybody of the consequences. Did anybody respected the Serbian border. It backfired as expected. In fact already two cases, includign Tibet.
Gleb , Hamilton, Canada
The point of the article is indeed that it was a game, and Georgia played it poorly. She would speak of borders, rights and wrongs while Russia speaks of a winning hand.
B Varapanyo, Boston, USA
Russia is doing exactly the same as US and NATO was doing in Serbia.No more,no less.
With independent Kosovo there is no more international law.What borders,human rights etc..
World is become jungle,like 1920's and 1930's.
UN is comedy,same like League of Nations.
Sandy, Sid, Serbia
And if NATO had accepted, and Bush not been in a minority, then Georgia's gamble might have worked. It is a good story, because it avoids discussing what Bush calls "missile defense" and the agreement with the Czechs. Do Poles get the right to check what the missiles heading their way really are?
Chris, Hamilton,
There's a million articles on the legality of Russia's actions, David. A basic synopsis of what went on, militarily speaking, is of interest to many as well.
Moko, Brisbane, Australia
l love the way this article is written like a game,where Georgia got their timing and strategy wrong.What about principles of recognised borders and the rights and wrongs.Geeorgia has been incredibly patient with having 2 parts of it's land taken by the Russians,and Russian passports issued.Apalling
David glowacki, London, UK