When France agreed to send troops to the east of Afghanistan this year, it was as a compromise. Amid a chorus of warnings that Afghanistan could be lost, the Pentagon was fuming at Nato allies for failing to share the combat burden.

Germany refused to send its troops to the restive south where British, American, Dutch and Canadian troops were bearing the brunt of the Taleban resurgence. So President Sarkozy agreed to send 700 more French combat troops to the east of Afghanistan, where he believed they would be safer.

The violence in southern provinces such as Helmand has held steady, while in the east it has soared. A 40 per cent increase in insurgent attacks in the east has contributed to the rising American death toll. High-profile attacks, from the Kandahar jailbreak to the overrunning of an American firebase in the northeast, have shaken Afghans’ faith in Nato.

The new geography underlines Nato’s greatest problem. The Taleban owe their resurgence to the presence of safe havens in Pakistan. The greatest knocks that the Taleban have taken this year have been the deaths of several commanders targeted by American drones. But as long as Pakistan bars the aircraft from its airspace the top leadership remain safe.

Iraq’s diminishing appeal to jihadists has resulted in hundreds flocking to Afghanistan. Just as during the Mujahidin wars against the Soviets, Pakistan is once again the jihad’s rear base. The tactics, however, have changed.

Before 2001 suicide attacks were unknown in Afghanistan. By 2006 they had increased to 123 and now far exceed that.

Wars cannot be won by suicide bombers alone. But the Taleban admit that they feel no need to win territory or outfight Nato, just outlast them. What they call this “hit-and-run war” needs only money, men and sanctuary. With the opium trade, Islamist sympathisers and Pakistan, the Taleban have all three.

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